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214
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MINERAL RESOURCES.
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An
examination of the figures of the table from 1890 to 1911, inclusive,
shows a total increase for the period of $349,600,900, a sum exceeded,
however, by the single output of each year since 1905. A study of rates
of increase for each year since 1890 shows wide variations, as from
9.93 per cent in 1891 over the output of 1890, to 21.52 per cent in
1898 over the output of 1897. In 1900 there was a decrease (the only
decrease in the period mentioned) due to the Boer War, which affected
the output of the Transvaal; then came an increase of 2.52 per cent in
1901, and then the maximum increase since the Boer War of 13.69 per
cent in 1902, followed by an increase of 12.05 per cent in 1903, and by
generally decreasing rates of increase from 1904 to date. So far as
the grand total is concerned and in view of present knowledge of the
world's gold fields, of the supplies of workable ores, and of the
prospects for economical methods for working ores not profitable now,
the outlook appears to be for a steadily decreasing rate of annual
increase of the output of gold. It seems probable that the world's
demand for new gold, to supply increasing needs for consumption in the
arts and industries, for the constant spreading of the gold basis for
national currencies, and for increasing hoarding by natives of such
countries as India and Egypt (where this hoarding is becoming partly of
gold as well as of silver), will grow at a faster rate than the
increase of supply.
To
the great increase, in recent years, of the world's supply of gold, has
been frequently ascribed the increasing cost of living. The output of
gold is, however, but one of many factors in a very complicated
problem in which there are many variables and relatively few constants.
There are many causes, checks, and balances in operation, some of which
may neutralize and some of which may emphasize the value of increasing
gold supply as a factor. Great increase of population over increase of
production of food supplies and other necessaries of life, control of
prices and supplies by powerful agencies as opposed to a real
competitive basis for sales, and nigh cost of labor are presumably
among many factors that seem competent to increase living costs
independent of the gold supplies. The psychological factor alone of
growth of reckless expenditure and speculation, especially during
periods of prosperity and independent of gold supplies, appears capable
of lowering purchasing power and thereby increasing living costs.
In the following table is shown the output of gold, by countries, for the 10 years ending 1911:
World's production of gold. 1902-1911, by countries.
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